Watchdog Blog

Herb Strentz: Iowa Arithmetic: for Democrats, 1%, 10%, 14.9% All Equal Zero

Posted at 1:13 pm, December 4th, 2007
Herb Strentz Mug

DES MOINES—“Who you gonna caucus for?” is a common question in Iowa these days. For some reason, perhaps the public declarations we make at our precincts, caucus preferences are fair game in conversations – much more so than “Who you gonna vote for?” is in November.

In response to my question, a friend said his Republican preference is Rep. Ron Paul from Texas.

“I may be the only one in my precinct for him,” said Dennis. “But he’s my choice.” The Paul campaign will help Dennis round up others in his precinct, so he won’t be so lonely. Dennis may make phone calls from a list provided by the Paul people. Who knows? He may have a dozen or more fellow Paul supporters at his precinct when caucus night rolls around on Jan. 3.

If so, every single one of those people rounded up by Dennis will show in the results reported by the state Republican Party. The percentage and number of Paul supporters will be reported on statewide and precinct levels. News media coverage of those numbers will recognize Dennis’s presence and those of others he brings along with him.

“Biden for President” signs now mark our front and back yards. There’s room enough for signs boosting John Edwards or Barrack Obama, if my wife opts for them instead of Biden.

I can make phone calls to other Democrats in my precinct, encouraging them to caucus for Biden.

Suppose I do, and suppose I double Dennis’s results and turn out, say, 25 to 30 Biden supporters.

Tough luck. You won’t read about those numbers or percentages in any caucus-night news reports on the Democratic Party race. If I turn out 25 or 30 Biden supporters, it’ll likely be the same as though I didn’t turn out one, and skipped the caucus myself.

That’s because – while the GOP follows a one-person, one-vote procedure – Democrats go for “delegate equivalents” and being “viable” at the precinct level. My precinct is likely to have 200 or more people show up. To be “viable” a candidate will have to have at least 15 percent of the turnout, or 30 people if 200 show up. (The percentage depends upon the number of delegates the precinct names to the county convention, but 15 percent is a frequent standard for viability.)

Anyway, Biden and other Democratic candidates now in the single digits in public opinion polls could garner 10, 12 or 14.9 percent of the Democratic “vote” and still not surface in the news statewide because their turnout wasn’t enough to win a single delegate.

It gets more complicated, because thousands of county convention delegates will be elected across Iowa’s 99 counties, but the state Democratic party pro-rates all of those delegates to fit a cap of 2,500 based on precinct Democratic votes in the last gubernatorial and presidential elections. The news reports tell you about “delegate equivalents” won from that pie of 2,500.

Okay, so suppose, Biden supporters are not viable at my precinct. Well, other candidates likely will not be viable either, so maybe they’ll band together as “uncommitted” or maybe they’ll agree to all join forces under the candidate with the most support. In that case, you’ll read about the support that Biden, Richardson or Dodd got and not be told that the support is a mixed bag.

So, Dennis is for Paul. I’m for Biden. Both underdogs, right now.

After that, our paths diverge.

And after Jan. 3 everyone will head for New Hampshire, thinking the Iowa results really told us something.



One Response to “Iowa Arithmetic: for Democrats, 1%, 10%, 14.9% All Equal Zero”

  1. J says:

    Biden has written articles on foreign policy on the CFR website. Other candidates (members) write articles for the CFR website as well. Most want to nation build. With 9 trillion dollars of debt and another promised 59 trillion, mostly to other countries, I hope your jobs pay well.

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