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Is it a civil war, or isn’t it?ASK THIS | July 209, 2006There are objective characteristics that all modern civil wars share. Harvard public policy professor Monica Toft lists six criteria. Hint: Iraq meets all of them. By Monica Duffy Toft There are six criteria for considering a conflict a civil war. Q. Is the focus of the war control over which group governs the political unit? Q. Are there at least two groups of organized combatants? Q. Is the state one of the combatants? Q. Are there at least 1,000 battle deaths per year on average? Q. Is the ratio of total deaths at least 95 percent to 5 percent? In other words, has the stronger side suffered at least 5 percent of the casualties? Q. Is the war occurring within the boundaries of an internationally recognized state or entity? The first criterion centers on the notion of sovereignty and governance. In a civil war, the main struggle is over who will govern, with each side rejecting the legitimacy of the other to take control of the government. The second indicates that each side has to be organized and armed for the war. This criterion therefore excludes spontaneous mob actions or riots, as, for example, in the Albanian pyramid scheme crisis in 1997. The third criterion holds that the state must be formally involved in the war, which allows for the exclusion of communal conflicts where there are two warring identity groups. The fourth tries to capture the intensity of civil war as opposed to other types of violence such as crime, riots, and smaller-scale insurgencies. This excludes such cases as the fight for Northern Ireland (although the costs of that long conflict have been tragic). The fifth captures the idea of a minimal capability of each side to conduct its military operations by inflicting casualties on the other side. This ratio criterion excludes massacres and genocides. The sixth excludes wars between two sovereign states. Iraq has met all of the criteria. The main one that has been contested is "the state is one of the combatants." Until recently, the argument put forward was that most of the violence was fomented by foreign insurgents. Although there is no denying that the foreign insurgents were involved in quite a bit of the violence, they were and are not alone. Organized groups of Sunnis (former Baathists in particular) have been waging violence as have Shiites (e.g., the Badr brigade/Mahdi Army) since at least Spring 2004. The conflict in Iraq formally became a “civil war” once a sovereign Iraq government took control in June 2004. Although precise figures are hard to come by, I don’t think anyone would doubt that the death count has exceeded 1,000 per year on average since. Furthermore, since the spring of 2006 at least, the number of deaths by sectarian groups (commonly referred to as death squads) has far outpaced that of suicide bombers (presumed to be foreign insurgents). Previous Civil Wars The following is a list of all civil wars from 1940 to 2005, all of which meet the criteria above: State, name of war/combatants, start year, end year Afghanistan I Civil War: Mujahideen, Taliban 1978 2001 Algeria I War of Independence 1954 1962 Algeria II Opposition to Bella 1963 1963 Algeria III Fundamentalists 1992 . Angola I War of Independence 1961 1974 Angola IIa Angolan Civil War 1975 1994 Angola IIb UNITA Warfare 1998 2002 Argentina Coup 1955 1955 Azerbaijan/USSR Nagorno-Karabakh 1988 1994 Bangladesh Chittagong Hill 1972 1997 Bolivia I Popular Revolt 1946 1946 Bolivia II Bolivian Revolution 1952 1952 Brazzaville Ia Elections 1993 1993 Brazzaville Ib Factional Warfare 1997 1997 Burma I Communist Revolt 1948 1989 Burma II Karens 1948 . Burma III Shan 1959 . Burma IV Kachins 1960 1994 Burundi Ia Hutu Coup Attempt 1965 1965 Burundi Ib Hutu Rebellion 1972 1972 Burundi Ic Hutu/Tutsi 1988 1988 Burundi Id Hutu/Tutsi 1991 1991 Burundi Ie Hutu/Tutsi 1993 2003 Cambodia Ia Khmer Rouge 1970 1975 Cambodia Ib Viet Intervention 1978 1991 Cameroon War of Independence 1955 1960 Chad FROLINAT 1965 1997 Chile Army Revolt 1973 1973 China I Com Rev: Final Phase 1945 1949 China III Cultural Revolution 1966 1969 China IIa Tibet 1950 1951 China IIb Tibet 1954 1959 Colombia I La Violencia 1948 1958 Colombia II FARC 1964 . Costa Rica Civil War 1948 1948 Cuba Cuban Revolution 1956 1959 Cyprus Ia Greek/Turk Clashes 1963 1964 Cyprus Ib Coup/Turk Invasion 1974 1974 Domin Republic Dominican Civil War 1965 1966 Egypt Free Officers' Coup 1952 1952 El Salvador FMLN/FDR 1979 1992 Ethiopia I Eritrea 1961 1993 Ethiopia II Tigray 1975 1991 Ethiopia III Ogaden 1977 1978 Georgia I South Ossetia 1990 1992 Georgia II Abkhazia 1992 1993 Greece Greek Civil War 1944 1949 Guatemala I Coup 1954 1954 Guatemala II Guatemalan Civil War 1960 1996 GuineaBissau I War of Independence 1963 1974 GuineaBissau II Coup 1998 1999 India II Hyderabad 1948 1948 India III Naga Revolt 1956 1997 India IV Sikh Insurrection 1982 1993 India Ia Part/Kash/In-Pak War 1946 1949 India Ib Kashmir 1965 1965 India Ic Kashmir 1988 . Indonesia I War of Independence 1945 1949 Indonesia III Acheh Revolt 1953 1959 Indonesia IV PRRI Revolt 1958 1961 Indonesia V PKI Coup Attempt 1965 1966 Indonesia VI East Timor 1975 1999 Iran I Kurds/Mahabad 1946 1946 Iran IIa Iranian Revolution 1978 1979 Iran IIb NCR/Mojahedin 1981 1982 Iraq I Army Revolt 1958 1958 Iraq II Mosul Revolt 1959 1959 Iraq IIIa Kurds 1961 1970 Iraq IIIb Kurds 1974 1975 Iraq IIIc Kurds 1980 1991 Iraq IV Shi'ite Insurrection 1991 1993 Israel/Palest Unrest/War of Indep 1945 1949 Jordan Palestinians 1970 1971 Kenya I Mau Mau 1952 1956 Korea Korean War 1950 1953 Laos Pathet Lao 1959 1973 Lebanon Ia First Civil War 1958 1958 Lebanon Ib Second Leb Civ War 1975 1990 Liberia NPFL 1989 1997 Madagascar MDRM/Independence 1947 1948 Malaysia Malayan Emergency 1948 1960 Moldova Trans-Dniester Slavs 1991 1997 Morocco I War of Independence 1952 1956 Morocco II Western Sahara 1975 1991 Mozambique I War of Independence 1964 1975 Mozambique II RENAMO 1976 1992 Namibia War of Independence 1966 1990 Nicaragua Rev/Contra Insurgen 1978 1990 Nigeria I Biafra 1967 1970 Nigeria II Maitatsine 1980 1984 Pakistan I Bangladesh 1971 1971 Pakistan II Baluchi Rebellion 1973 1977 Paraguay Coup Attempt 1947 1947 Peru Shining Path 1980 1999 Philippines I Huks 1946 1954 Philippines II NPA Insurgency 1969 . Philippines IIIa Moro Rebellion 1972 1996 Philippines IIIb Moro Rebellion 2000 . Romania Romanian Revolution 1989 1989 Russia Ia First Chechen War 1994 1996 Russia Ib Second Chechen War 1999 . Rwanda Ia First Tutsi Invasion 1963 1964 Rwanda Ib Tutsi Invasion/Genoc 1990 1994 Sierra Leone RUF 1991 2002 Somalia Clan Warfare 1988 . South Africa Bl/Whit, Bl/Bl 1983 1994 South Korea Yosu Sunch'on Revolt 1948 1948 Sri Lanka II Tamil Insurgency 1983 . Sri Lanka Ia JVP I 1971 1971 Sri Lanka Ib JVP II 1987 1989 Sudan Ia Anya Nya 1955 1972 Sudan Ib SPLM 1983 2005 Syria Sunni v. Alawites 1979 1982 Tajikistan Tajik Civil War 1992 1997 Tunisia War of Independence 1952 1956 Turkey Kurds 1984 . USSR I Ukraine 1942 1950 USSR II Lithuania 1944 1952 Uganda I Buganda 1966 1966 Uganda II War in the Bush 1980 1986 Vietnam I French-Indochina War 1946 1954 Vietnam II Vietnam War 1957 1975 Yemen Southern Revolt 1994 1994 Yemen North I Coup 1948 1948 Yemen North II N. Yemeni Civil War 1962 1970 Yemen South S. Yemeni Civil War 1986 1986 Yugoslavia I Croatian Secession 1991 1995 Yugoslavia II Bosnian Civil War 1992 1995 Yugoslavia III Kosovo 1998 1999 Zaire/Congo I Katanga/Stanleyville 1960 1965 Zaire/Congo II Post-Mobutu 1996 . Zimbabwe Front for Lib of Zim 1972 1979
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